The future is open!
The increasingly rapid changes in technology, the economy, and society make forecasting and modeling difficult. Basic natural resources, such as water and land, are increasingly strained by economic and population growth, particularly in the small, fast-growing country of Luxembourg. Some future changes remain relatively predictable, while others are uncertain. One thing is certain, however: many future effects of global change can be influenced, for better or worse, by human behaviour. The need for new methods of decision-making in the face of such complex interrelationships is clear.
Through the NEXUS FUTURES project, we are organising a participatory process with a wide range of stakeholders and participants. This aims to create the opportunity for people to consciously and actively help shape the future, developing new approaches to the sustainable use of water and soil. We will discuss, in a participatory manner, what concrete changes can be achieved in water and agriculture, politics, companies, and private households. We are developing methods for future-orientated, networked thinking, to consider changes in the complex water system and interactions between the ecological, social, and technological areas of the system from very different perspectives.
The NEXUS FUTURES project utilises the method of systems analysis and the creation of scenarios. Both methods challenge widespread notions of cause and effect and thus offer the opportunity to look at old problems in a new light and to make conscious decisions in view of a more complex network of effects. Scenarios and systems analyses are not the only sensible approach. However, they promise to recognise forces of change and existing areas of influence and sometimes reveal unexpected possibilities. The methods are not yet widely used in policy and practice in Luxembourg.
This project is the first example of transformative science in Luxembourg. Transformative science embeds transdisciplinary research into practice with the aim of creating new impulses to collectively change social practices, existing systems, and our view on the use of natural resources in a sustainable way.
A video about the NEXUS FUTURES project was produced in English by transformative researchers from the University of Louvain.
Decisions affecting the sustainable use of water and soil in Luxembourg are complex and interlinked with other policy areas. As with issues relating to pensions and infrastructure, these decisions have long-term impacts, and unforeseeable effects may hinder desired developments. Strategic foresight is a process that adopts an open perspective on possible future developments. Various images of the future, particularly in the form of scenario sets, provide an opportunity to better understand options for action and their potential consequences under different circumstances. Working with scenarios helps to question assumptions, break free from outdated thought patterns, and consider new options for action with stakeholders from various sectors of politics and business.
In Luxembourg in particular, which has seen the highest growth in population and commuter numbers in the EU over the last 20 years, the biophysical limits of growth in relation to these fundamental natural resources, such as water, biodiversity, and fertile soils, are becoming increasingly clear. Biodiversity in surface water and groundwater, as well as soil life, which is usually not dealt with so obviously, help to regulate fertility and the water balance. However, the connections, interactions and feedback loops between developments and the economy, environment, society and technology, particularly with regard to water and soil quality, are rarely recognised systemically. A relevant example of a self-reinforcing feedback loop here is the growing demand for energy and capital to produce water and fertile soil as a consequence of the decrease in natural regeneration potential due to human energy and capital-intensive production and land use.
Watch this discussion about the global revolution on German TV for more food for thought.
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