Context

Climate change increases the risk of extreme weather events, including summer droughts and floods  (IPCC Assessment Report, 2021). As a result, Western Europe, including Luxembourg, is exposed to potential seasonal impacts on economic development and human well-being. This adds further pressure to already stressed and increasingly deteriorating ecosystems, upon which human existence depends. In particular, the increased risk of summer droughts poses a significant threat to the integrity of the biosphere and the health of various ecosystems across different landscapes. Potential seasonal restrictions on water use can also impact the economy and human well-being.

Predicting droughts has always been challenging, primarily because it is very difficult to define a clear date for the 'onset' of a drought. The increasing complexity and uncertainty associated with modelling make competent interpretations and evidence-based decisions difficult. Moreover, this complexity and uncertainty present additional challenges when it comes to communicating warnings effectively, especially in persuading laypeople to take mitigation measures.

Research questions

• How can we design a drought monitoring and early warning system, as well as a multi-source web platform, that combines a range of official data sources with unconventional sources in a participatory process involving officials, experts, communities, and citizen volunteers?
• How can this platform be designed to be easily accessible to everyone, not just experts?
• How can local experts, decision-makers, and volunteer citizens be given the opportunity to contribute their local knowledge to the project and participate in actions to improve drought resilience on the ground? Can the web platform be co-designed in this way to inform and facilitate learning about individual and collective local actions to improve drought resilience?