Needs, Goals and Purposes
Water and soil are central to our lives. And yet: in many regions - including Luxembourg - the state of these vital resources is deteriorating before our very eyes! The main reasons for this are inappropriate use and pollution. What's more, extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, storms, summer droughts, and heatwaves are likely to increase. This means additional burdens. This raises the question of whether these two foundations of life can continue to renew themselves and whether biodiversity can be safeguarded. In the face of this profound ecological crisis, more and more people are campaigning for sustainable development. In politics, business, and many other initiatives.
But setting the course for sustainable development is difficult. This is because changes for a more sustainable practice require breaking out of familiar ways of thinking and behavioural patterns. It is not just a question of imagining the future as open, with its uncertainties and risks; it is also about the question of our responsibility, our room for manoeuvre, and our options for shaping it. Scenarios are helpful for discussing this question together with a wide range of interest groups and expertise. To this end, a set of scenarios was developed in a participatory process. This set of three different future scenarios for dealing with water and land in Luxembourg in 2045 is intended to help us better recognise our sphere of influence.
Methods
Qualitative scenarios offer plausible depictions of possible future developments, outlining what the future could look like. These scenarios systematically consider contexts that could shape our future. In Luxembourg, for example, we can explore how factors such as public pension funds, state finances, growing commuter and population numbers, and petrol tourism might impact water consumption and quality under various conditions. By combining plausible sets of formative contexts, coherent future scenarios are created. Since qualitative scenarios always involve the creation of multiple such scenario sets, with developments in one often contradicting those in another, the future is presented as open-ended. The process of building consistent worlds requires networked thinking. Using different images of the future as a framework for analysis provides an opportunity to better understand potential options for action and their consequences under diverse circumstances. Scenario planning encourages scrutinising one's own assumptions, breaking away from old thought patterns, and considering new strategies alongside actors from different sectors.
Although qualitative scenarios and system analyses are not the only valid approach, they offer a fresh perspective on problem-solving and can highlight areas where influence is possible to help shape a shared future. These methods sometimes reveal unexpected opportunities as well.
As a complementary set, these scenarios provide a framework for thinking that underscores the openness of the future while demonstrating that the effects of forces of change and uncertainties can often be influenced to some extent. Throughout the project, this set of scenarios can be used to develop strategies and options for action at various policy and practice levels (national, regional, or at the level of municipalities and organisations) and with various stakeholders, testing their resilience in an uncertain future.
NEXUS FUTURES: Three Future Scenarios
Three future scenarios were developed with input from a broad range of stakeholders as part of the interdisciplinary research project NEXUS FUTURES. Experts from various fields contributed to a foundational framework for the scenarios, which included reference points from their respective areas of expertise. This process resulted in five expert contributions, each offering a detailed description of the scenarios and differentiating them based on specific fields of knowledge.
The project was sponsored by the Luxembourg Ministry of the Environment, Climate and Sustainable Development and the University of Luxembourg. More than 60 interviews with experts, decision-makers, and stakeholders from sectors including water, agriculture, environmental protection, and consumer associations were analysed. Additionally, the results of seven workshops, each attended by 30-50 participants, were examined. Assumptions about the future development of our climate are based on reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
" Report of the participatory workshops
Results and content
Does society tend to favour technical solutions, focus on health and well-being, or prioritise the protection and restoration of an intact environment? These differing focal points led us to develop three future scenarios, each illustrating how the future will depend heavily on the interplay between culture, technology, and the environment. Used together, these scenarios can help develop perspectives for shaping a sustainable future. It is important to note that these scenarios are neither forecasts nor particularly desirable outcomes. The future will likely contain aspects of all three scenarios.
The Smart Sustainability scenario envisions a world where technological innovations advance rapidly, with artificial intelligence taking on many control and decision-making roles. Recycling and resource-conserving economic activity are key priorities for society. However, despite these technological advancements, the state of water, soil, and air deteriorates due to economic and population growth. Inequality in the distribution of resources continues to rise.
In the Common Good and Knowledge scenario, politics and the economy are highly regionalised and operate primarily within a sharing economy model, where many goods are shared among the population. This approach allows for more sustainable use and protection of local water and land resources. National institutions play a lesser role compared to regional ones, infrastructure is decentralised, and competition between regions intensifies.
The A Part of Nature scenario depicts a world where water and food supplies are frequently threatened by global crises. Society adopts a simple lifestyle focused on securing existence within a broader web of life. In this scenario, environmental protection takes precedence over private property and personal fulfilment.
These scenarios are most effectively used as a set, illustrating relevant and plausible key points across a wide range of potential future developments. A broad set of materials has been created and is now available for practical use in workshops, lessons, or private discussions on these pressing issues that affect us all. This website provides access to these valuable resources.
The scenario set is currently being used in a participatory process to develop a national strategy for agroforestry in Luxembourg.
The scenario set was also used in a CIPU workshop with municipalities to discuss options for action to increase resilience to the potential impacts of climate change.
The scenario set will also be used as part of an executive training programme in the future.
